What Happened: Italian oil and natural gas contractor Saipem said it expects Mozambique’s suspended liquefied natural gas project to resume around mid-2022, Reuters reported Oct. 28.
Why It Matters: Mid-2022 appears to be a realistic target date, but it will ultimately depend on Mozambique’s security environment. A period of low-level militant activity is likely between late December and mid-April — as northern Mozambique’s rainy season will disrupt militant movements — but the following level of militant activity could determine whether the project’s startup date will be postponed. Meanwhile, Mozambique’s continued insecurity has decreased certainty around ExxonMobil’s final investment decision into its own LNG project at the same site.
Background: Mozambique’s LNG project was suspended throughout most of 2021 after a series of attacks conducted by a local Islamic State-backed jihadist group forced TotalEnergies to suspend activities. Regional countries, including Rwanda and South Africa, have since intervened and helped suppress the militants.